The rain you avoid. The comfort your people will actually feel.
Daytime only (8am–10pm local) — night rain doesn't ruin a daytime event.
Decisions deserve evidence — yours too.
From a real audit · Harbor Island, Bahamas
May 1
6.0h
pleasant outdoor hours
May 8
11.0h
pleasant outdoor hours
Same venue, one week apart. The industry calls both peak shoulder season — the 25-year audit shows a 5-hour swing between them.
See the full audit ↓
Your date's floor — the level an event-day clears at least 90% of the time, at 90% statistical confidence, autocorrelation-tested.
A forecast says what's coming in the next few days. An average says what's typical.
Forelore tells you which dates hold the highest pleasant-hours floor — the level of daytime hours an event-day clears at least 90% of the time, with 90% statistical confidence, across 25 years of audited climate data.
Weather forecast
"What will happen Thursday?"
10-day outlook, hour by hour. Useful 7 days out, useless 18 months out when the booking is made.
Wrong question for a long-lead-time decision.
Climate averages
"What's typical for September?"
Average rain and temperatures hide the variance — and an outdoor event is one specific day, not a typical one.
Right granularity, wrong statistic.
Forelore Audit
"Which dates hold the highest floor?"
For your venue, on this date, the floor of pleasant daytime hours with 90% statistical confidence over 25 years — observed, not modeled.
Turn climate uncertainty into a client-facing decision memo.
Showcase · Harbor Island · wedding date selection
Where the wedding calendar is wrong by a week.
The question your client will ask. The answer that holds up.
Two dates, seven days apart, both inside what every wedding calendar calls "peak shoulder" season.
The 25-year audit shows one sits in a rain-driven trough, the other on a clean rebound.
May 1 — the trough
6.0hrs
wedding event-day floor / 14 daytime hrs · 8am–10pm local
May 8 — the rebound
11.0hrs
wedding event-day floor / 14 daytime hrs · 8am–10pm local
Same venue, 7 days apart. +5.0 hours of usable outdoor time per day.
Industry says peak season. The audit shows the seven-day swing.
The 30-day window
The transitional period, day by day · April 15 – May 15
Each bar is one calendar day. Height = the wedding event-day floor for that day —
the pleasant-hours level an event-day clears at least 90% of the time,
with 90% statistical confidence.
Inside the same 30-day window, the floor swings from 6.0h to 11.0h.
May 6–10 hold an 10.0–11.0h floor — the protected sweet spot inside the shoulder. The first
week of May sits in a rain-driven trough (May 1 = 6.0h). The week after May 10 is the start of
the wet-season ramp. The audit lets you place a wedding inside the protected window with
confidence, not hope — and steer clients away from periods the industry typically considers safe
but the data shows are weaker.
Talking points · use with your client
What this means for the decision-maker
The audit is a defensible floor — the worst plausible day, not the average day — that lets you
anchor a date conversation in 25 years of observed climate.
"May 1 is riskier than May 8 — and the difference is not subtle."
A wedding centered on May 1 has a 90/90-confidence floor of only 6.0 pleasant hours per event-day.
The same wedding centered on May 8 holds 11.0 hours. Same venue, seven days apart.
"Booking 7 days too early may cost +5h of outdoor time per day."
Industry calendars call the whole window "shoulder season." The audit shows a rain-driven trough in
early May. May 6–10 is the protected sweet spot — the first days of May pay a steep tax.
Three ways to use a Forelore audit
LOCATION-FIRST
Client locked the venue. Audit reveals the protected dates inside the window they assumed was all "peak."
DATE-FIRST
Client locked the date. Audit ranks the candidate venues on that specific date.
TAILOR-MADE
Standard audit covers most events. For non-standard cases — nighttime ceremonies, beachfront receptions, altitude venues — thresholds and time windows adapt to the actual question being asked.
Methodology · observed 25-year data
NASA IMERG (rain) + Copernicus UTCI (thermal comfort) · 0.1° lat/long · 30-min temporal · 8am–10pm local.
Wedding event-day floor = the pleasant-hours level an event-day clears at least 90% of the time, with 90% statistical confidence,
autocorrelation-tested. Villa / stay mode adds a 6-of-7 audit floor (held by ≥6 of 7 days in 24 of 25 historical years).
Read the methodology note.
Block-level support
Inside the day
Where the floor concentrates — May 1 vs May 8
The daily floor is the headline. The block profile shows where in the day it sits —
and the same one-week gap reshapes the whole day. May 1 (6.0h) is
Constrained in every block; May 8 (11.0h) holds the
morning and afternoon Strong and flags only the evening
to plan around. Each block is rated Strong
(plan freely), Workable (plan with backup), or
Constrained (significant limit).
May 1daily floor 6.0h · rain-driven trough
Morning · 8–11
Constrained
floor ≥32% pleasant
main constraint: rain
Midday · 11–14
Constrained
floor ≥16% pleasant
main constraint: rain
Afternoon · 14–18
Constrained
floor ≥36% pleasant
main constraint: rain
Evening · 18–22
Constrained
floor ≥24% pleasant
main constraint: rain
May 8daily floor 11.0h · clean rebound
Morning · 8–11
Strong
floor ≥82% pleasant
Midday · 11–14
Workable
floor ≥66% pleasant
main constraint: rain
Afternoon · 14–18
Strong
floor ≥86% pleasant
Evening · 18–22
Constrained
floor ≥62% pleasant
main constraint: rain
Block floor = the pleasant-hour coverage a block reaches at least 90% of the time, per 3–4h block.
Daytime blocks are climate-neutral; event labels (ceremony, reception) sit in the report layer.
Forelore is priced by deliverable. Every audit is prepared to support a real venue, date, or destination decision. Start with the daily floor, or step up to the Inside the Day audit when you need the hour-by-hour block profile to place the event and plan backups. Prepay a bundle when you need recurring decision support.
Try us first
Free Date Check
$0 · one-off
1 venue × 2 dates, short PDF. See the audit's logic on a real choice before you buy.
Everything in the Decision Audit, plus the block-by-block Inside the Day profile — where the floor concentrates, so you know which part of the day to protect.
Everything in the Decision Audit (1 venue · up to 4 dates)
Block-level support profile — Morning / Midday / Afternoon / Evening, each rated Strong / Workable / Constrained
Main constraint per block (rain / heat) — what to plan around
Place the event in the strongest block; back up only what needs it
Prepay a bundle of audits, use within 12 months. No subscription, no monthly billing — your decisions, your pace. Every bundle includes Inside-the-Day audits on us.
Multi-venue portfolios, hospitality groups, real estate firms, HNW advisors and parametric insurers. Scope, volume, geography, thresholds and report format defined per engagement.
Portfolio-scale audit programs with agreed usage limits and turnaround times
Inside-the-Day block-level support across every property
Custom data delivery · API access only where expressly included in an enterprise order form
Pricing in USD, indicative — final terms confirmed via consultation. Bundle redemption window is 12 months from purchase. Unused audits do not roll over beyond the window.
Methodology
How we measure pleasant hours.
Two ways to ask the engine.
Forelore's audit engine answers two queries over the same 25-year climate floor dataset:
Location → Calendar
"At this venue, when?"
You give a venue. The audit returns the year-round rhythm of pleasant hours — 365 days of floors — to compare candidate dates, identify sweet-spot windows, or score the full annual fingerprint.
Date → Map
"On this date, where?"
You give a date or window. The audit returns the global ranking — 5.4 million distinct points — to compare candidate destinations, build short-lists, or rotate a portfolio of venues.
The Harbor Island case study above is the first query type, applied to a wedding date selection. The same engine serves vacation rentals, property buys, festivals, multi-venue portfolios, and destination comparisons.
Microclimate-aware. Not a regional average.
Forelore audits at 0.1° lat/lon resolution — each pixel is roughly
7 miles across, the size of a small coastal town. Two villas 12 miles apart on the same coast
may have meaningfully different floors. The audit is venue-specific: your exact location,
not a regional or city-level smoothed average.
Rain — the primary filter.
An outdoor event lives or dies on rain. Forelore uses NASA GPM IMERG Final V07
— the gold-standard satellite precipitation dataset, with 0.1° lat/lon resolution
(~7 mi) and 30-minute temporal cadence. Each 30-minute slot counts as rain-free
below 0.1 mm/h rain rate. No rain, no event lost.
Daytime rain only. The audit counts rain falling between 8am and 10pm local time,
ignoring rain at 3 AM when nobody is outside. A pre-dawn downpour doesn't ruin a daytime ceremony —
and traditional climate averages that lump night and day together mask the signal that actually
matters for outdoor events.
Why satellite rain, not reanalysis? Validated against NOAA Stage IV gauge ground truth, ERA5 reanalysis
exhibits a −2.3-hour drizzle bias in places like Miami — counting low-rate rain
the gauges don't register. IMERG matches the gauge within ±0.4 hours. The choice of rain dataset
alone can shift the audit by hours per day.
Then: strong thermal stress.
Once rain has cleared, what's left is thermal comfort. A 30°C day with full sun, no wind, and
80% humidity feels around 38°C to a person standing outside in formal clothing — the thermometer
reads 30°C, the body feels 38°C. Forelore measures what your people actually feel,
using the UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) — the scientific standard for outdoor thermal stress.
UTCI uses 4 inputs (not just temperature).
UTCI consumes air temperature, mean radiant temperature (sun + ground + buildings),
wind speed, and water vapor pressure (humidity). It accounts for all of them simultaneously
using a 6th-order polynomial fit (Bröde et al. 2012, IJBM).
Below −13°C or above +32°C UTCI, the body experiences strong thermal stress
— those hours are excluded from "pleasant" in the audit. The UTCI dataset is Di Napoli et al.
2021 (DOI 10.1002/gdj3.102),
published in Geoscience Data Journal.
The two 90s.
When Forelore reports a "high-confidence floor" of X pleasant hours, two numbers are both 90%
— and they measure different things. How often a day clears the floor:
at least 90% of the time (coverage). How sure we are of that:
about 90% confidence. The floor is set at the level where a one-sided 90%
confidence bound holds the ≥90% rate even given the sampling uncertainty of a 25-year record.
The inter-annual variability is measured directly from 25 years of observations, not modeled.
We also checked the year-to-year autocorrelation in the data: for this rain-driven metric it is
negligible, so the 25 years behave as roughly 25 independent samples — the floor isn't
resting on one lucky decade.
What this means for you: the floor is a deliberately conservative number — the level an event-day
clears at least 90% of the time, at 90% confidence. The audit's job is to hand you that defensible floor,
not the average day — so you can stand behind the date.
ENSO sensitivity: our Jul 2000–Jun 2025 sample contains 3 La Niña / 5 El Niño / 17 Neutral
years (long-run climatology ~25/30/45%). Bootstrap re-weighting to climatological ENSO frequencies
moves the audited floor by ≤0.3 hours — the 2nd-lowest order statistic already absorbs the worst
La Niña year in the sample directly.
Full statistical derivation (Weibull plotting position, autocorrelation test via
Bretherton 1999 + Wilks 2011, empirical stationarity per Sun et al. 2018, ENSO robustness analysis, references to David & Nagaraja 2003 and IPCC AR6):
read the methodology note.
What Forelore's audit serves:
any venue × date decision — from a single outdoor wedding, vacation rental,
property use-week, festival, or corporate event, through to multi-venue annual
profiles and portfolio reports.
Request audit
One venue. Two dates. Free PDF.
Share the venue (or coordinates) and one or two candidate dates. We'll prepare a Forelore PDF audit and send it back within 24–48 hours. No signup. No card. If the audit answers your question, we can scope the right paid audit, bundle, or portfolio pilot.
